ABOUT GUATEMALA TODAY
Guatemala is located just to the south of Mexico and is about the size of Tennessee but with tremendously varied climates and ecosystems going from sea level to 11,000 ft. It is an exceptionally beautiful country which touches both the Pacific and the Caribbean. It boasts 22 volcanoes, 3 major mountain ranges, and a varied climates suitable for growing tropical fruits (pineapples, bananas, mangos), temperate (broccoli, snow peas, corn, beans) up to potatoes and other cold-climate crops. The northeastern third of the country (the Peten) is the largest rain forest in Central America, and the recipient of consistent attention by environmentalists trying to preserve it. (It is an uphill battle given considerable illegal logging and invasion of subsistence farmers using slash and burn techniques.)
INHABITANTS - Guatemala’s population of some 13 million (not counting the estimated 1 million or more who live in the US, legally or illegally) is comprised of some 50% Mayan (called “indigenous”) and 50% “ladino” (a mixture of Spanish and indigenous, or indigenous who have abandoned their traditional clothing and language). About half are Catholics, some 40% are Evangelical protestant, and the rest are Jewish, nothing or follow traditional Mayan religious practices and beliefs. Almost ¼ of the population lives in the metropolitan area of Guatemala City. Among the indigenous, 22 Mayan languages and two non-Mayan are still spoken and a large percentage of those people do not speak Spanish, or speak only rudimentary Spanish (numbers for bargaining, etc.)
OBSTACLES TO DEVELOPMENT: (1) The language diversity creates severe obstacles for administration of justice, health programs, education, and binding the nation into one whole; (2) in the last 50 years, Guatemala has been ruled largely by military dictators; even during the last 20 years of freely-elected governments, democracy is only a thin veneer; (3) the structure and nature of economic, cultural and social relations are marked by profound exclusion, antagonism and conflict, which reflect its colonial history; (4) its economic structure reflects the concentration of productive wealth in the hands of a minority (it is said that 80% of the country’s resources are in the hands of only 20% of the people); (5) the population is growing too fast for the government services to keep up in providing education and health care, and for the private sector to absorb the labor force; and (6) Guatemala suffered 36 years of civil war, during which an estimated 200,000 (mostly indigenous) people were killed or disappeared and many more were forced to migrate within or outside of Guatemala, robbing Guatemala’s communities of most natural leaders. People who sought to remain distant from the confrontation were treated by the military with profound mistrust or as enemies, contributing to the political intolerance and polarization which still exists. Approximately ¼ of all the direct victims of human rights violations and acts of violence were women, often due to indiscriminate actions. The UN report on the period of violence found that 94% of the massacres and violations were committed by the military, although the guerrillas set up many of the situations in which they knew the military would retaliate.
RECENT HISTORY & CURRENT GOVERNMENT REALITIES:
Guatemala endured a guerrilla war for 36 years. Although it initially started in the eastern part of the country, led by junior military officers seeking a more just society for the poor, it disinte-grated into the military against guerrillas who were mostly leftist intellectuals, supported by some indigenous people. Most of the indigenous, however, just wished to be left alone by both sides but the military, believing that they were “the water through which the fish swim”, undertook massive forced moves of many communities, and committed a large number of massacres. During its 36 years, there were an estimated 200,000 victims, and many more fled their communities, some taking refuge in Mexico and the U.S. The Peace Accords, signed in December 1996, called for, among other things, a reduction by 1/3 in the size of the military, which finally took place in 2004 under the current Berger government. Other portions of the agreements pertaining to the military have not been implemented, and although the strength of the military as an institution has ebbed, they are still not fully under civilian control.
The democratic period includes the last 11 years of the armed confrontation, by which time the guerrilla forces had been greatly reduced and the worst of the violence was over. Nonetheless, the internationally-sponsored peace negotiations took over 6 years to conclude, ending with the signing of the Peace Accords in December 1996. The Guatemalan Government committed to implement within 3 years the terms of those accords, which called for increasing the tax base in order to have greater financial resources with which to improve education, health care, the judicial system (and access of the indigenous to it), labor rights, creation of a civil police force, reduction of the military’s size, budget and power, and retraining of guerrilla forces and their acceptance into civil life. MINUGUA, the U.N.-sponsored peace verification group, remained in Guatemala 8 years (far beyond the 3 years initially envisioned), and the government still has not been able satisfactorily to comply with the Peace Accords. Considerable foreign assistance has entered the country in the last 9 years, and while there are notable improvements in some areas, the results are still disappointing and government corruption, particularly under the previous government led by Pres. Portillo (now a fugitive from justice, living in Mexico) is appalling.
The Peace Accords committed the government to raise the country’s tax revenue, among the lowest in the world, to 12% of GDP, but it hovers still around or less than 10% giving it the lowest tax burden in Central America (Nicaragua, with half of Guatemala’s per capita wealth, had a tax burden of 16% of GDP last year.) Thus, the government has insufficient resources to invest in education, health and basic infrastructure. Guatemala receives incalculable levels of support from NGOs and private individuals and who come as volunteers (including many surgical/medical teams) and with many donations. The country also receives a great deal of foreign assistance (the largest donors are USAID and Japan), and the World Bank has just approved low-interest loans in the amount of $600 million over the next 6 years. In addition, an average of $6 million per day enters the country from remittances sent by Guatemalans working abroad, mostly in the US. The average family receiving these remittances gets $280 per month – a direct, low-cost form of foreign assistance, but one which goes much more into immediate consumption, some modest housing improvements, and little into education and investment.
The “democratic” government, in effect since 1985, is plagued by several systemic problems. (NOTE: There is no word in Spanish for “accountability.”) The political parties are weak and short-lived, usually associated with only one person, and active only during presidential campaigns (which happen every 4 years, and the President cannot succeed himself). There is no career civil service, and thus little continuity from one administration to the next. Each President names his own cronies to key positions, regardless of their skills and experience. As the populace that has voted them in is largely ignorant and passive, there are few demands for politicians to carry out their campaign promises, and no cohesive political party structure to help them do so.
The Congress is too large and expensive for a small, impoverished country, and is filled with people with no ties or dedication to their constituents. Nor do they do their jobs – absenteeism is rampant, only a few (and mostly poorly-drafted and partially unconstitutional) laws are passed each session, but all have highly-paid, mostly incompetent (often family members) “advisers” rather than trained personal and committee staff. They can’t track bills and don’t read what they are voting on, if indeed they are there to vote.
The judicial system is no better, being virtually dysfunctional. Based on Roman law, it rests largely on written documents rather than oral testimony and permits a bewildering array of delays which means some cases go on for 20 years or more. As judges are not well-paid, they are easily corruptible and can, without fear of dismissal much less prosecution, find minor errors in transcribing details (the accused’s ID number or spelling of his mother’s maiden name) that suffice to throw a case out of court. Very few capital crimes are successfully prosecuted, and despite the horrendous corruption of the previous government, none of the high-level perpetrators have been sentenced (although some are in jail, awaiting trial, and the former Vice President and the former President of the Congress are under “house arrest”, determined by the judge to permit them to go anywhere in their municipality).
The Civil Police are struggling, now having a higher level of education requirements than 10 years ago when the average cop had only 5 years of schooling. It is still riddled with corruption and even blatant criminals who lead or participate (often with military colleagues) in bands of kidnappers, extortionists, car robbers, assassinations, narcotrafficking and illegal exports (logging, archeological artifacts, illegal alien smuggling, etc.)
The military is no longer the monolithic structure it used to be, but still almost no crimes committed by military are successfully prosecuted. In part this is due to the weak and corrupt Ministerio Publico which, under Guatemalan law, is responsible for both investigating and prosecuting crimes. The former head of this important institution is under prosecution now on corruption charges.
There is some hope in the press, which has grown notably in courage and investigative reporting in the past 15 years. It is the media that has uncovered and reported on all the scandals and corruption of which the public is aware. In addition, local governments have become more active, with the Municipalities receiving 10% of the national revenues. For the first time in recent history, the populace is beginning to hold their elected officials accountable at this level.
SOCIO-ECONOMIC INDICATORS
Note: The figures provided below all come from official sources (the Guatemalan Government, various U.N. agencies, the U.S. government, etc.) but are nonetheless not reliable due to insufficient, inaccurate or totally-lacking data.
Guatemala’s population has increased 5-fold in the last 100 years, and is expected to increase from some 13 million now to 17.5 million by 2020. The average number of children per woman is down from 5.1 to 4.3, but has remained unchanged at 6.1 among indigenous women (only 10% of whom report using any family planning method). Half of Guatemalan girls have a child by the time they are 19, and nearly 20% have two or more children by the age of 18. Some 47% of Guatemala’s population is under the age of 15 while only 3.5% is over 65.
Due to traditional political and religious (from the Catholic and many evangelical churches) opposition to family planning, it was only three years ago that the Guatemalan Congress made a policy of providing family planning services to anyone who wants them; however, the Ministry of Health has still not ensured that all government health centers have birth control methods available and trained people to administer them. Only 40% of women use any form of birth control, including natural methods. Abortion is illegal, yet an estimated 1 of every 5 pregnancies ends in abortion, and complications from abortion are the 2nd leading cause of death of women.
Due to this burgeoning population and a continuing reliance on firewood as a principal source of energy, Guatemala’s forests have been reduced by 50% compared to 1950. Almost ½ million acres of forest are destroyed every year to make room for cattle grazing, displaced families and to provide fuel. Over 10% of the national territory suffers from advanced environmental degradation (erosion) while 85% shows some signs of it. 97% of Guatemala’s surface waters are contaminated.
The maternal/infant mortality figures are exceeded in Latin American only by Haiti and Bolivia; maternal mortality is 190 for every 10,000, and thus a woman is some 25 times more likely to die in childbirth here than in the U.S.. The infant mortality rate has dropped from 79 per 1000 live births in 1987 to 49 in 1999. Guatemala has Central America’s lowest life expectancy, with nearly 50% of the population suffering from malnutrition (caused by both the high fertility rate and by lack of knowledge). Some 57% of Guatemalans now live in extreme poverty, surviving on less than $2/day, and of these 80% are indigenous and 75% live in rural areas. More than one child in 10 does not live to be 5 years old – every day 115 Guatemalan children under 5 die from such preventable diseases as diphtheria, whooping cough, tetanus, measles and polio. Sadly, these figures have not changed in the last 20 years. Less than half of the rural population has access to potable water, and many women and girls spend hours per day hauling water from the nearest (polluted) stream. There are 7 doctors for every 10,000 people, (most of them poorly-trained and equipped) but 55% of them are in Guatemala City, providing 1 doctor per 1000 people, while in the departments it is 1/5000.
Guatemala has the lowest education level in Latin America, with schooling lasting just 5.5 years on average and much less for young girls, particularly in the indigenous communities. Only 50% of Guatemalan kids attend school, and only 1% of those will go on to high school. Over ½ of first-graders flunk first grade due to overly-large classes, poorly-trained teachers, vision or other disabilities, not understanding Spanish, etc. In a recent, ground-breaking exam, less than 20% of high school graduates were able to pass the govt. exams in language in math, and only 50% of the teachers passed the first exam administered to them. National adult literacy stands at 37% and drops to just 23% for indigenous people, even lower for indigenous women. Yet the Guatemalan Constitution requires that 8% of the national budget be spent on the public University of San Carlos, which until recently had no admission nor continuing enrollment requirements. Fewer than 12% of students enrolled graduated every year, and the average number of years graduating students took to graduate was over 13.
The Economy – The largest earners of foreign exchange are foreign remittances followed by coffee. The coffee industry employs 1.2 million people, so when coffee prices are low (as they have been for the last 5 years), the impact is felt through the society. There is a minimum wage of about $5 per day, but especially among agricultural workers, this minimum is not observed.
Guatemala remains a largely agricultural society, but the arable land is distributed unevenly with only 2.1% of farms occupying 62% of the arable land. Only 4% of the land is owned by small-scale farmers, and only ½ of farmers own their own land, with the remainder working as share-croppers or day laborers. A family needs land the size of a football field to provide subsistence crops (corn and beans) for its family, but most have only ¼ that amount. Corn is grown on more acreage than all other crops combined, but the land and climate do not provide a high yield (some 48 bushels per acre compared to 200 bushels/acre in Iowa.)
SECURITY – Guatemalans consistently rank security and unemployment as their highest concerns. Due in part to the legal labor force being able to absorb only 20% of young people (leaving the other 80% to enter the black market, organized or unorganized crime, or emigrating to the US), crime rates continue to escalate. In the past 10 years there has been a notable increase in the numbers of gangs, including international gangs such as the Salvatruchas, particularly in the metropolitan area of Guatemala City but also in more rural areas. People riding public buses are frequently held up at gunpoint. The murder rate is high (5 times that of the US); the police state many of these murders are gang-related. In 2004, almost 500 young women were murdered (a rate far exceeding those in Ciudad Juarez), many of them said to be involved with gangs and drug traffickers. Almost all crimes go unresolved, including these murders, rampant car-jacking, and a high number of kidnappings for ransom.
IS THERE ANY HOPE?
It is easy to get discouraged looking at the big picture in Guatemala, but there are certain hopeful signs. The current Berger government is not (yet) as openly corrupt as was its predecessor, and is trying to increase the levels of government investment in health and education. They have cut the size of the military to less than ½ of what it was (although their budget has doubled in the past 14 years). There is a resurgence of participation in community affairs among the indigenous people, and natural leaders are emerging. More people are getting educated, including indigenous girls. Some women (especially unmarried ones or widows, who don’t have a man to hold them back) are coming into their own and showing their innate leadership skills. There is an increased use of modern family planning methods. The press continues to show courage in its investigative reporting, holding the feet of many public and private officials to the fire. And Guatemala continues to receive (and hopefully benefit from) large donations from international donors (the UN, USAID, the World Bank, foreign governments, etc.) as well as from the active participation of a huge number of non-profit organizations, both grass-roots Guatemalan and foreign, which provide an outlet for local leadership and encouraging Guatemalans to take more responsibility for their own well-being.
I'll forward you my talk notes, but the "facts" about population are that in 1950 it was 2.8 million, and is now about 13 million, not counting the 1 million or more who are living in the US. The population is expected to grow to _____ by the year _____. (I think Meira has those stats.)
Forests have decreased by half since 1950, due to this population growth. 97% of Guatemala's surface water is contaminated. The govt. hasn't been able to keep up in educating this huge population increase - thus the average Guatemala child receives only 5.5 years of education.
Almost 50% of the population is under the age of 15 - thus this HUGE group of people which has not yet entered its reproductive years will soon be adding even more people. Only 3.5% of the population is over 65.